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Can Anybody Catch Nokia? – The Massive Image


At the moment’s version of “No one Is aware of Something” is a few once-dominant cell phone maker. Precisely 15 years in the past, Forbes’s new cowl story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted:

“Nokia, one billion prospects – can anybody catch the cellphone king?”

It was posted on-line October 26, 2007 — 15 years in the past at this time.

In a traditional model of the innovator’s dilemma, Nokia was unwilling to cannibalize its already very profitable handset enterprise. Maybe they failed to acknowledge the shift towards extra highly effective smartphones that gave higher cell computing capabilities to customers. Or, they have been merely unable to make the flip.

Regardless, Apple had already been engaged on a touchscreen cell computing gadget for a number of years. In 2007, the exact same yr of the Nokia Forbes cowl, Apple rolled out the iPhone; not lengthy after, the decline of Nokia’s cell phone enterprise started. A mere 5 years later (2013), Nokia bought its whole cellphone enterprise to Microsoft.

It’s one more reminder of what we are likely to overlook:

1. The longer term is unknown and unknowable: Ignore anybody who pretends they know with certainty what’s coming subsequent — they don’t, as a result of they’ll’t. As an alternative, its higher to consider the world in probabilistic phrases: What’s extra possible or much less prone to happen. You’ll nonetheless get this fallacious (and infrequently), however your errors can be smaller and you may be extra versatile in your pondering.

2. This too, shall move: There are many explanation why corporations generally crash and burn from nice success: Benefits achieved will not be long-lasting; the abilities that led to greatness will not be the identical as what it takes to keep up these benefits. Typically, the world modifications earlier than we acknowledge it. However its simple to neglect this, and easily assume domiannt corporations will stay that manner. BlackBerry, Lucent, Nokia, NT have been the dominant telecom gamers within the Nineteen Nineties/2000s, and shortly pale. Which dominant corporations within the 2020s will undergo related fates?

3. We fail to correctly consider content material we devour: All the pieces you learn, hear ot or watch ought to to be analyzed for its integrity and accuracy. Every bit of knowledge must be evaluated by itself deserves. Buyers can not merely settle for (or reject) one thing as a result of it’s in {a magazine} or on tv. My expertise has been its higher to depend on the person writers you realize than publications. Don’t assume something is true or fallacious with out understanding the supply’s observe document.

4. We underappreciate cycles: Tendencies really feel like they’re everlasting, particularly as they attain turning factors: Nokia seemed unbeatable in 2007 however the seeds of its destruction have been planted years prior. We now have a tough time wanting past the right here and now, as we reside on the intersection of the previous and the long run. This usually prevents us from understanding the long run life cycles of the financial system, markets and firms.

5. Change is Fixed: It’s east to overlook incremental shifts over time.  The universe is dyanamic and ever altering. We’re specialists in the best way the world was once. Flux is a persistent state of affairs. This implies we should continually test our personal data base because it ages out of foreign money and decays over time.

For those who take note of historical past, you will notice this type of factor recurrently. Grand pronouncements about why a brand new service or product can be nice or will fail miserably; forecasts about what is going to occur. Our personal priors are so inbuilt that it’s simple to overlook when one thing — or all the things — has modified.

Recognizing how little you truly know is a superpower. If we have been much less sure of ourselves and possessed extra humility, we may all turn out to be higher traders.




Don’t Learn This Weblog Submit! (Could 18, 2022)

Step by step, Then All of a sudden (October 1, 2021).

Why the Apple Retailer Will Fail (Could 20, 2021)

No one Is aware of Nuthin’ (Could 5, 2016)

How Information Appears to be like When Its Outdated (October 29, 2021)

Predictions and Forecasts


The Subsequent Billion
by Bruce Upbin
Forbes, Oct 26, 2007


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